ИЗСЛЕДВАНИЯ ВЪРХУ ЦИКЛИЧНОСТТА НА ЖИЛИЩНИТЕ ЦЕНИ И ПРИЧИНЯВАЩИТЕ Я ФАКТОРИ

Петър Иванов

Abstract: This article is the second in a row that intends to present a brief overview of major studies worldwide that examine the influence of various determinants over housing price dynamics. It is a sequel of the article named “Research on theories regarding credit determinants of housing prices” and that is why its aim is to focus on noncredit conditions being in correlation with housing prices. The central object of study is the housing price cycle – why it happens, what causes it, how big its magnitude is and what pattern it follows in respect to the underlying factors that have caused it. In terms of determinants being discussed in the paper we focus on procyclical ones, among which are economic activity, income, current account in the balance of payments and the mechanism of functioning of the real estate market itself. The latter includes average size and time for concluding of deals, as well as the availability and market liquidity of dwellings and land plots. Special attention is paid to the importance of the homeownership rate in respect to the housing booms and busts. Other unorthodox determinants that are covered include the process of gentrification of neighbourhoods and local cultural specifics.

Key words: housing prices, cycles, boom and busts, homeownership rate, gentrification, current account

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